Barack Hussein Obama
Why it moved: +5 points at 02:07 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Obama hits the campaign trail for Democrats with midterms less than 2 weeks away — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 89% |
| 25 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Oct, 01:47 UTC | 84% |
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump says Barack Hussein Obama during a midterm rally in Lubbock, Texas that was originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not say it under those specific conditions. Readers often mistake the original schedule date for the actual event date or assume any mention of Obama counts regardless of location.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 89%
- No 11%