Fraud (3+ times)
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$53k
Liquidity$53k
Resolved8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 24% |
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%