Barack Hussein Obama
Why it moved: +7 points at 02:14 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Obama hits the campaign trail for Democrats with midterms less than 2 weeks away — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 25 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 91% |
| 25 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Oct, 01:47 UTC | 85% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump says Barack Hussein Obama during his Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan on October 25, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not say it at that specific event on that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the election cycle rather than the fixed rally date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%