Deport / Deported / Deportation
The market favoured No at 79% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$39k
Total volume$49k
Liquidity$49k
Resolved20 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 21% |
| 19 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 21% |
| 19 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 27% |
| 18 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 27% |
| 18 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 16:38 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 27% |
| 18 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 32% |
| 17 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 16% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses the words "Deport," "Deported," or "Deportation" during his scheduled midterm rally in Wichita, Kansas on October 19, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about actual policy implementation rather than a specific spoken phrase at a single event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%