Event does not qualify
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a qualifying event does not happen. It resolves to No if such an event occurs. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution criteria rather than checking for the specific definition of a qualifying event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%