Deport / Deported / Deportation
Implied probability 1%−26
24-hour volume$40k
Total volume$50k
Liquidity$50k
Resolves23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 13% |
| 10 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 00:12 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 23:59 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 27% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 27% |
| 9 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 07:23 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 01:36 UTC | 25% |
| 9 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 25% |
| 9 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 23% |
| 8 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 27% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 23% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 23% |
| 8 Oct, 10:30 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 22% |
| 7 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 26% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses the words "Deport," "Deported," or "Deportation" during his Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York. The event must occur on October 9, 2026, as originally scheduled for this condition to be met. Readers often mistake the Supreme Court case headline for the trigger, but only Trump's specific speech at that rally counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%