Before Nov 1, 2026
Implied probability 42%−28
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +44 points at 15:12 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Lula’s win in Brazil deals blow to Trump’s Latin America push: former China envoy — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 42% |
| 27 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva meet or speak by phone before November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if they do not connect within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Brazil's election for the resolution criteria, but only a direct interaction between Trump and Lula counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 42%
- No 58%