Oct 31
The market favoured Yes at 71% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 95%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved2 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 09:15 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 07:45 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 04:50 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 93% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 99% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 93% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 98% |
| 31 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 92% |
| 31 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 90% |
| 31 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 44% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 43% |
| 31 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 16% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump plays golf on October 31, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not play golf on that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a court hearing for the actual event required to resolve the market.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%