Japan
Why it moved: +3 points at 15:13 UTC, after News - South China Morning Post: Washington’s transactional Taiwan policy puts Indo-Pacific at risk, ex-US officials warn — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 8 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 17% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays within Japan's borders between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not make such a visit during that period. Readers often mistake the linked news story about missile tensions for the resolution criteria, but only Trump's physical presence matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 83%