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you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love

Implied probability 98%+3
24-hour volume$82
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves26 Oct 2026

Why it moved: +3 points at 19:32 UTC, after Variety: Olivia Rodrigo’s ‘You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love’ Returns to No. 1 on Albums Chart Following ‘Expectations’ Remix — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
0%50%100%98%24 Oct, 18:40 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now98%
25 Oct, 19:32 UTC98%
24 Oct, 18:40 UTC95%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if the song reaches number one on the Billboard 200 chart for the week ending October 31, 2026. The outcome is No if it does not hold that top spot during that specific week. Readers often mistake the release date or a single-day peak for the required weekly ranking.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 98%
  • No 2%

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