Above 10k
Implied probability 25%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 21 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the total number of tuberculosis disease cases reported in the United States during 2026 exceeds 10,000. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked measles story for the relevant data source.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%