Question 3
The market favoured No at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Why it moved: −20 points at 07:20 UTC, after The Hill: Massachusetts voters reject ballot measure eliminating jungle primaries — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 08:10 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 06:31 UTC | 23% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Question 3 passes in Massachusetts, and No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked headline about rejecting jungle primaries for the resolution of this specific ballot measure.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%