3
Implied probability 5%−1
24-hour volume$684
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if exactly three Starship launches reach space in 2026. It resolves to No for any other number of launches. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it depends on a specific date rather than the full calendar year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%