Before Oct 1, 2026
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$48k
Liquidity$48k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 07:56 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX launches a Starship rocket from Florida before October 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such launch occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the resolution condition for requiring a successful orbit or safe return, but the official rule only requires a launch.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%