Before Oct 16, 2026
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved16 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +5 points at 08:20 UTC, after CNET: SpaceX Starship Flight 14 Reaches Earth’s Orbit for the First Time — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 08:20 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 13:39 UTC | 94% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%