Before 2027
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$506k
Liquidity$506k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 11:41 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a wallet identified as Satoshi Nakamoto’s on Arkham’s Intel Explorer executes an Outflow or Swaps transaction before January 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Coinbase for the actual trigger, but only the specific blockchain activity on Arkham counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%