Below 193
Implied probability 99%+51
24-hour volume$328k
Total volume$1.6M
Liquidity$1.6M
Resolves1 Feb 2027
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party holds fewer than 193 seats in the House of Representatives on February 1, 2027. It resolves to No if they hold 193 or more seats on that date. Readers often mistake the timing, thinking the count happens immediately after the midterm elections rather than on the specific resolution date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%