Michigan
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$16k
Resolves3 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Michigan has the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about who will win the Senate race rather than which state has the largest margin in the presidential vote.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%