Before 2027
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$1.0M
Liquidity$1.0M
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 05:12 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake general diplomatic talks or media reports for an official recognition by the US government.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%