Above 3425
The market favoured No at 77% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 4%
24-hour volume$290
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolved4 Mar 2027
Why it moved: −19 points at 13:11 UTC, after CNBC: Ferrari raises 2026 guidance after Q3 earnings beat — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 23% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ferrari reports more than 3425 total car shipments for the third quarter of 2026. It resolves to No if the reported number is 3425 or fewer. Readers often mistake the Q3 2026 reporting period for the current quarter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%