Collin Morikawa
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 24%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$46k
Liquidity$46k
Resolved5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 06:37 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 6% |
Outcomes
- Yes 24%
- No 76%