The Invite
Implied probability 1%−4
24-hour volume$90
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves31 Dec 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 04:30 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Kore-eda Hirokazu receives a nomination for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards. The outcome is No if he does not receive that specific nomination. Readers often mistake the release of his film or general critical acclaim for the official nomination, which is the only factor that matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%