Trump (2+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 91% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$22k
Total volume$23k
Liquidity$23k
Resolved7 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 20:14 UTC | 90% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Barack Obama mentions Trump two or more times during the Fighting for Ohio Rally in Cleveland, Ohio. The outcome is No if he does not meet this threshold at that specific event. Readers often mistake the rally's original scheduled date of October 24, 2026, as a hard deadline rather than just an initial plan.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%