Sam Darnold: 300+
The market favoured No at 88% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 80% |
| 27 Sept, 19:13 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 05:16 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Sam Darnold throws for at least 300 passing yards in the Seattle versus Washington game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. It resolves to No if he fails to reach that yardage total or does not play. Readers often mistake the original scheduled date for a flexible deadline, but the resolution depends strictly on that specific game.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%