Sam Darnold: 2+
The market favoured No at 54% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$104k
Total volume$117k
Liquidity$117k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Sept, 18:20 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 00:42 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 15:16 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Sam Darnold throws two or more passing touchdowns in the Seattle versus Washington game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. The outcome is No if he throws fewer than two passing touchdowns in that specific game. Readers often mistake the return to play as sufficient; only the touchdown count matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%