Jim Jordan
Why it moved: −4 points at 15:43 UTC, after Deadline: Midterm Elections: Mike Johnson To Step Down From House Republican Leadership After Democrats’ Blowout Victories — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Jim Jordan becomes Speaker of the House before January 1, 2031, and Mike Johnson was the immediate predecessor in that role. The outcome is No if this specific sequence does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mike Johnson stepping down as sufficient proof, but the market requires Jim Jordan to actually assume the Speakership afterward.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%