No new Director of Legislative Affairs
The market favoured No at 64% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$412
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved8 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 23% |
| 9 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 36% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a new White House Director of Legislative Affairs formally holds that position before January 1, 2027. The outcome depends on whether this person is the first individual to take the role after the market's issuance date. Readers often mistake the linked news headline as the resolution trigger, but only the formal assumption of office matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%