Before Oct 15, 2026
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$50
Total volume$48k
Liquidity$48k
Resolved15 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 12 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 99% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 98% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 97% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph forms in the Atlantic Ocean before October 15, 2026. It resolves to No if no such storm develops in that region by the deadline. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mexico's Pacific Coast for the relevant event, but only storms in the Atlantic count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%