Luis Antonio Tagle
Why it moved: −4 points at 21:23 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Pope Leo arrives in Uruguay for first stop on 12-day South America tour — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Luis Antonio Tagle is elected Pope before January 1, 2070. The outcome is No if he is not elected by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Pope Leo as relevant to this specific prediction.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%