22,800 or below
Implied probability 12%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Nasdaq 100 index value falls below 22,800.01 after issuance and before December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day on December 31, 2026, rather than the specific time of 4pm EST.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%