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Marc Marquez

Implied probability 87%+2
24-hour volume$487
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$34k
Resolves14 Dec 2026

Why it moved: +14 points at 06:28 UTC, after The Guardian Sport: Inglorious end as rain cancels final MotoGP race at Phillip Island in setback for Márquez — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Marc Marquez
0%50%100%87%24 Oct, 05:40 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now87%
25 Oct, 09:28 UTC86%
25 Oct, 06:28 UTC93%
24 Oct, 05:40 UTC79%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if Marc Marquez wins the 2026 MotoGP World Championship. The outcome is No if he does not win that championship. Readers often mistake the cancellation of a single race for the end of the season, but only the final championship standings matter.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 87%
  • No 13%

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