Above 7.1%
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 99% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeds 7.1% at any point during 2026. The outcome is No if the rate stays at or below 7.1% for the entire year. Readers often mistake the current rate mentioned in news headlines for the final resolution value, but only the rate observed within the 2026 timeframe determines the result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%