Yes
The market favoured No at 70% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 3%
24-hour volume$353
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Why it moved: −27 points at 04:25 UTC, after NPR Politics: Missouri voters turn down a Republican-backed congressional map — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 04:16 UTC | 30% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if voters approve Proposition A in the 2026 Missouri referendum. It resolves to No if they reject it or if the vote does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about past events for the final result, but only the official 2026 election outcome counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%