Tampa Bay -1.5 games
The market favoured Yes at 58% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$767
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved10 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 85% |
| 18 Oct, 05:31 UTC | 29% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tampa Bay finishes the championship series with more than one and a half games ahead of Cleveland. It resolves to No if Tampa Bay does not hold that specific lead at the end of the series. Readers often mistake the current game score for the final standing, but only the total games won in the entire series count toward the margin.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%