Above 13.1M
Why it moved: +6 points at 06:02 UTC, after Times of India: Two Indians among 28 green card holders charged with election fraud in California — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 37% |
| 19 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 31% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the total number of votes cast in the California Governor General Election exceeds 13,100,000. It resolves to "No" if that total is 13,100,000 or fewer. Readers often mistake the deadline for when the vote count must be finalized versus when the official results are certified.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 37%
- No 63%