McClellan, 36+ pts
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$6
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Nov, 23:33 UTC | 76% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrats win Virginia’s 4th Congressional District seat in the 2026 election by a margin of at least 36 percentage points. The outcome is No if they do not meet that specific margin. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mark Warner for the relevant race, but this market depends solely on the results in Virginia's 4th District.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%