Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
Why it moved: −4 points at 13:46 UTC, after The Hill News: Ken Paxton’s estranged wife tells GOP women: Vote Republican ‘even if we’re mad’ — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 24% |
| 23 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. The outcome is No if the Republican Party wins by less than 3 percentage points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any win counts instead of the specific 3-point threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 24%
- No 76%