Hinojosa, 1+ pts
Implied probability 100%+1
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$170k
Liquidity$170k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 23:11 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 12:15 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 07:38 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 29% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election with a margin of at least one percentage point. It resolves to No if the Democratic candidate wins by less than one percentage point or loses the election. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any Democratic win counts rather than specifically a victory by one point or more.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%