Rabb, 88+ pts
Why it moved: −6 points at 01:49 UTC, after The Hill: Democratic socialist secures House seat in Pennsylvania — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 42% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins Pennsylvania's 3rd District race by a margin of at least 88 percentage points in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if the victory margin falls short of that threshold or if the party loses. Readers often mistake the linked headline for the resolution criteria, but the market depends strictly on the final certified vote count and the specific point spread.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 67%