Drazan, 2+ pts
Why it moved: −10 points at 06:00 UTC, after The Hill: Incumbent Tina Kotek wins Oregon governor’s race — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 04:13 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by a margin of at least two percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate wins by less than two percentage points or loses the race entirely.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%