Kotek, 5+ pts
Implied probability 92%+38
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$15k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 73% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Nov, 04:12 UTC | 53% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by a margin of five percentage points or more. It resolves to No if that candidate wins by less than five points or loses the race entirely. Readers often mistake the specific candidate for the required party, but the rule depends solely on the Democratic Party's victory margin.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 92%
- No 8%