Acton, 2+ pts
Implied probability 99%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$87k
Liquidity$87k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 22:35 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 19:43 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 83% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 76% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election with a margin of at least two percentage points. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than two percentage points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any Democratic win counts instead of only those with a two-point advantage.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%