Miller, 1+ pts
The market favoured No at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −4 points at 06:57 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Embattled GOP Rep. Max Miller loses reelection in Ohio — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 06:30 UTC | 15% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House election in Ohio's 7th District by a margin of at least one percentage point. The outcome is No if the Republican candidate loses or wins by less than one percentage point. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Miller conceding as the final result, but the market resolves based on the official vote count from the 2026 election.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%