Poindexter, 10+ pts
Why it moved: −29 points at 06:43 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Embattled GOP Rep. Max Miller loses reelection in Ohio — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 06:30 UTC | 29% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 7th District by a margin of 10 percentage points or more. It resolves to No if that specific victory margin does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked story about Max Miller conceding as the final result, but only the official outcome of the 2026 election determines the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%