Ford, 4+ pts
Why it moved: +54 points at 10:21 UTC, after NPR Politics: Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford beats GOP incumbent for governor — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 42% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrat Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada governor race by a margin of at least 4 percentage points over his opponent. The result depends on the official certified election results for that specific contest. Readers often mistake the linked story about a past or different election as the determining factor, but only the 2026 gubernatorial election counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 6%