Hudson, 3+ pts
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$128
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 04:06 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Nov, 05:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 18:42 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 18:14 UTC | 44% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House election in North Carolina's 9th District by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican victory is less than 3 percentage points or if the party loses the race.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 100%