El-Sayed, 5+ pts
Implied probability 99%+1
24-hour volume$120k
Total volume$621k
Liquidity$621k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 11:03 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 20:45 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 44% |
| 2 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 07:47 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Nov, 06:35 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 44% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 18:33 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 40% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Michigan Senate election by a margin of at least five percentage points. It resolves to No if the victory margin is less than five percentage points or if the candidate loses. Readers often mistake the required margin for a simple win, overlooking that the party must exceed the opponent by five points specifically.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%