Democrats, 24+ pts
Why it moved: −3 points at 20:27 UTC, after The Hill: California Gov. Gavin Newsom to commute all death sentences in state — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 94% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election by a margin of 24 percentage points or greater. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than 24 percentage points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked story about Gavin Newsom for the resolution criteria, but only the final vote margin in the 2026 election matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%