Democrats, 15+ pts
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$47k
Liquidity$47k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:27 UTC | 93% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election by a margin of at least 15 percentage points. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than 15 points or loses the election entirely. Readers often mistake the linked news story about tax policy for the actual resolution criteria, but only the final election results determine the market.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%