Before Jan 1, 2027
Why it moved: +4 points at 19:17 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: Eugénie Richard: "Macron habló más de castigar la violencia que de dar soluciones a la población" — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 35% |
| 18 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 31% |
| 17 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 32% |
| 15 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 34% |
| 15 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 37% |
| 14 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 41% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters and stays inside Venezuela’s borders before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if she does not do so by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story for proof of her presence, but only her actual physical location matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 65%